29 Apr 2015
NZD/USD rallies remain a sell – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at ANZ, believes that NZD remains at troubled levels and suggest shorting NZD/USD rallies.
Key Quotes
“However, the major driver for today’s trade is expected to be the key FOMC event which may provide fresh insights on the pair.”
“Before the McDermott speech last week, the NZ Trade Weighted Index (TWI) was trading above 80, which is above the level that it was when the RBNZ last intervened.”
“The RBNZ began the last intervention on Monday 25 August 2014 at a level of 0.8405 against the USD. However the Trade Weighted Index was trading at 79.65 at the RBNZ 11:10 snap on Friday 22 August.”
“Even now, trading in the 78s, the NZD TWI remains within 2% of this level. Clearly the NZD remains high on the list of factors the RBNZ is actively monitoring.”
“Thus we maintain a bias for selling rallies and are happy being short NZD on a trading basis. However, should the ANZ inflation gauge (ANZ’s monthly CPI measure) continue to show weakness in price setting and wage bargaining, then we would shift from a trading to a structurally short bias.”
Key Quotes
“However, the major driver for today’s trade is expected to be the key FOMC event which may provide fresh insights on the pair.”
“Before the McDermott speech last week, the NZ Trade Weighted Index (TWI) was trading above 80, which is above the level that it was when the RBNZ last intervened.”
“The RBNZ began the last intervention on Monday 25 August 2014 at a level of 0.8405 against the USD. However the Trade Weighted Index was trading at 79.65 at the RBNZ 11:10 snap on Friday 22 August.”
“Even now, trading in the 78s, the NZD TWI remains within 2% of this level. Clearly the NZD remains high on the list of factors the RBNZ is actively monitoring.”
“Thus we maintain a bias for selling rallies and are happy being short NZD on a trading basis. However, should the ANZ inflation gauge (ANZ’s monthly CPI measure) continue to show weakness in price setting and wage bargaining, then we would shift from a trading to a structurally short bias.”