CEE FX: Zloty faces downside pressure and Leu awaits political clarity - ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects the NBP to delay rate hikes until early 2027, with government fuel-price measures allowing policymakers to remain patient. He sees the EUR/PLN trading range shifting higher to 4.380–4.400 amid a strong US Dollar, rising energy prices and risk aversion. In Romania, political uncertainty remains in focus, with EUR/RON expected to stabilise near current levels if a new parliamentary majority emerges.

Polish rates steady, zloty range higher

"The National Bank of Poland’s press conference with Governor Adam Glapiński initially struck a hawkish tone, highlighting inflation risks and the impact of higher energy prices. However, the key takeaway for the market is that, according to the Governor, a rate hike in November is unlikely."

"It appears the government's new measure to lower fuel prices is sufficient for the central bank for the time being, allowing the NBP to wait further. Unless inflation delivers a significant surprise in November, rate hikes will be postponed until the first quarter of 2027 – our baseline scenario."

"Elsewhere, as expected, the National Bank of Romania kept rates unchanged at 6.50%, and we did not see many new comments in the statement. We continue to monitor political negotiations in Romania. EUR/RON drifted lower yesterday following headlines, suggesting hope for a new government under technocratic leadership backed by the original coalition parties."

"Nevertheless, EUR/RON remains above 5.340 and significantly higher than the levels seen in late September, when pressure on the currency began. Should a new parliamentary majority be formed, we expect EUR/RON to stabilise at current levels rather than seeing a leu rally."

"EUR/PLN remains unchanged, but we maintain our view that the trading range will shift from 4.360-4.380 to 4.380-4.400, driven by a strong US dollar, higher energy prices, and risk-off sentiment in the eurozone."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)