EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates above 1.1350 pivotal support as bearish bias persists
- EUR/USD struggles to register any meaningful recovery amid the bullish USD undertone.
- Fed hike bets, elevated US bond yields, and geopolitical risk underpin the safe-haven buck.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the recent declining trend.
The EUR/USD pair fills a modest weekly bearish gap, though it lacks bullish conviction and struggles below the 1.1400 mark through the Asian session on Monday. Moreover, spot prices remain close to the lowest level since July 28, touched last Thursday, and seem vulnerable amid the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
Against the backdrop of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook, oil-driven inflation fears lifted market bets for another interest rate hike in October and keep US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff, underpins the safe-haven buck and validates the negative outlook for the EUR/USD pair.
Even from a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a clear bearish bias below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below zero with the line under its signal and a negative histogram, reinforcing persistent downside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 28 signals oversold conditions that could slow the decline but have yet to trigger a meaningful rebound.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 1.1350 horizontal support before positioning for further weakness toward the year-to-date low, near 1.1325 touched in June, en route to the 1.1300 round figure. On the top side, any attempted recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers near the 1.1460 supply zone. A move above could lift the EUR/USD pair beyond the 1.1500 psychological mark, though it is likely to remain capped near the 200-day SMA at 1.1557.
Spot prices would need to reclaim this barrier to ease the broader bearish tone and open scope for a more sustained recovery in the near term as the market focus shifts to this week's important US macro data. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is due for release on Wednesday, along with the final Q2 GDP print. The attention will then turn to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which should provide a fresh impetus to the USD and the EUR/USD pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price This Month
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.03% | 2.31% | -1.23% | 2.14% | 2.00% | 4.33% | 2.67% | |
| EUR | -2.03% | 0.29% | -3.20% | 0.09% | -0.02% | 2.25% | 0.63% | |
| GBP | -2.31% | -0.29% | -3.49% | -0.20% | -0.31% | 1.97% | 0.36% | |
| JPY | 1.23% | 3.20% | 3.49% | 3.41% | 3.28% | 5.57% | 4.02% | |
| CAD | -2.14% | -0.09% | 0.20% | -3.41% | -0.10% | 2.10% | 0.53% | |
| AUD | -2.00% | 0.02% | 0.31% | -3.28% | 0.10% | 2.28% | 0.68% | |
| NZD | -4.33% | -2.25% | -1.97% | -5.57% | -2.10% | -2.28% | -1.59% | |
| CHF | -2.67% | -0.63% | -0.36% | -4.02% | -0.53% | -0.68% | 1.59% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).