Australian Dollar gains as Treasury buyback offsets hawkish Fed

• AUD/USD advances as Treasury buyback pressures Dollar lower.
• Hawkish Fed minutes show tightening risk if inflation stalls.
• Australia jobs data and US PMIs drive next catalysts.

The Aussie Dollar advances on Wednesday, up over 0.56%, as the US Dollar registers losses amid the US Treasury bond buyback and despite the release of hawkish Federal Reserve minutes from the July meeting. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7127.

AUD/USD climbs as lower US yields offset hawkish Fed minutes

The US Treasury buyback of long-end bonds revealed that the Treasury is worried about elevated yields. Since the beginning of the US-Iran war, US yields have remained near the year's highs, as energy prices have stayed high amid hostilities that threaten to affect one-fifth of global Oil production.

The US Treasury program is expected to last from September 9 to November 4, during which the US Treasury will double purchases of long-end bonds from 2 billion to at least 4 billion, in an effort to modestly influence the yield curve.

In the meantime, the Federal Reserve released its July meeting minutes, noting that dissenters recognised inflation as broad-based and favoured a more “restrictive policy.” The minutes showed that policymakers are concerned about inflation, with many considering that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline.

In the minutes, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, asked if the US central bank should hold six meetings, allowing two months for data review. The 2026 schedule remains unchanged.

Ahead, traders eye the speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of August, which Fed officials usually use to outline the future of interest rates for the second half of the year.

In Australia, traders eye the release of employment data. The Employment Change in July is expected to show a deceleration of firing, from 76.3K in June to 15K in July, with the Unemployment Rate poised to remain steady at 4.4%, unchanged,

In the US, the economic schedule will feature Initial Jobless Claims, a speech by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and S&P Global Flash PMIs.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7127, extending its advance above the cluster of underlying demand defined by the simple moving average triple (SMA) set at 0.6996 and the nearer rising trend-line floor around 0.6967. Price location above these supports sets a constructive near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 66 suggests firm but increasingly stretched bullish momentum as the pair approaches the upper band of a broader ascending structure.

On the topside, initial resistance is located in the 0.7297–0.7309 band, where overlapping upward trend lines could slow further gains before higher barriers emerge toward 0.8433 and 0.9150. On the downside, immediate support is found at the recent breakout area around 0.7127, followed by the short-term rising trend-line near 0.6967 and the grouped simple moving averages at 0.6996, with the earlier downtrend-line break at 0.6399 marking a deeper structural floor should a more pronounced correction unfold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)